Greysheet: HOW WILL A TRUMP PRESIDENCY AFFECT THE NUMISMATIC HOBBY?CDN Publishing · Nov 16, 2016
ENCOURAGING BALTIMORE EXPO PRECEDES ELECTION SURPRISE
The majority of reports from the recent Whitman Baltimore Expo have been positive, as the market was ready for action after a lull in major show activity. Wholesale buying and selling was robust, especially for Morgan dollars and gold type coins. Positive activity in the gold spot price also contributed to the demand seen at the show.
ELECTION SPARKS RUSH IN ELECTRONIC GOLD MARKETS
Speaking of gold, as we write this the day after the Presidential election the yellow metal is heading for its heaviest volume day of trading ever – in terms of futures contracts – exceeding the April 2013 “flash crash” day.
As important the Baltimore show is to the rare coin business, much more important on the global scale is, of course, the election of Donald Trump as President of the United States. While one does not have to look far to find the wide spectrum of opinions of the economic impact of Trump’s victory, the impact on the rare coin market may be less clear.
If the first 48 hours of trading is any indication, the near-term impact could be positive. Immediately after the election results were announced, gold spiked and the equity markets plummeted. However, within an hour of the markets opening the following day the Dow Jones and the S&P were back near their pre-election levels – and all-time highs – and gold had tempered back below $1,280 per ounce. As has been said, measuring and/or predicting demand in the rare coin market is more of a study in human behavior rather than in economic statistics. When collectors feel optimistic about their future and the future of the world they live in, they are more willing to spend and invest in their coin collections. Of course the opposite is true as well. It also doesn’t hurt that a Trump presidency is likely to be very favorable to the tax rates of high net worth individuals, a sentiment echoed in other collectible areas. A recent article in Artnews.com quotes Amy Cappellazzo, co-head of the Fine Arts Department at Sotheby’s, as saying, “Trump is probably better for the art market if you analyze it.”
At this early stage it is impossible to know the actual impact of the economic policy and vision of the President-elect, but early opinions are more positive than negative for collectibles and rare coins.