The Business Of Numismatics: November 2024 Greysheet Editor's Letter

Without getting into the polemics of the Presidential election, it is unquestionable that both the campaigns leading up to and the election result itself has far-reaching psychological consequences. Campaign speak inevitably revolves around this nebulous idea of the “economy” and how one candidate or the other’s policies will impact it. I use the word nebulous because the modern economy, both in the United States and worldwide, is exceptionally complicated and increasingly fractured and decentralized. The way money flows and is earned or lost is increasingly independent of central planners or policy makers. Thus, there is only so much one person, whether they are the President of the United States or not, can influence. Nonetheless, elections always spark a short-term market reaction. Individuals, institutions, and the equity market itself seem predetermined to respond in one way or another depending on which political party emerges victorious. While these market moves tend to smooth out over time, the initial moves can be volatile and sudden. These market moves will impact the direction of precious metals prices, and will influence buying and selling decisions for rare coin investors and collectors. One thing that is certain is that through the end of September, the equity markets have generated exceptional returns. The S&P 500 is up 20.8%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 12.3%, while gold is plus 28% over that time period. There is little to complain about in terms of this performance, so regardless of what happens in the final two months of the year many investors will be in the black.

Going back to my mention of decentralization of the economy, there is a corollary to the numismatic markets. Today, there are so many venues at which to buy and sell coins such that opportunity is always lurking around if one looks hard enough. From the United States one can bid (or sell) in an auction taking place in Germany, Monaco, Hong Kong, or Thailand. The major United States based auction firms have one or more international offices to capture some of this business. An amazing example of this is the recent sale of Part 1 of the L.E. Bruun Collection by Stack’s Bowers. That a through-and-through American auction company is handling the sale of one of the most important European coin collections ever is evidence of how global our market is. In a previous era, the collection would have been sold in Europe and it is highly unlikely that it would have had the same level of visibility, and thus the same level of prices realized. If the market was not truly international, it would not have been possible for a Danish coin to sell for 1,200,000 Euros ($1,317,055). In earlier times, it would occur that U.S. rare coins would turn up in a foreign auction and an astute buyer would pluck something for a great price. It is less common today, thanks to the size of the American market, but there are those who buy world coins in overseas sales and sell them here in the U.S. for a healthy profit. The common theme for all of this is that the only way to be successful is to be armed with the largest data set possible. While I come back to it often, the goal that drives us as a brand to build and maintain the most comprehensive set of numismatic data in the world to stimulate business and help sellers and buyers make the best decisions.

Sincerely,

Patrick Ian Perez, patrick@whitmanbrands.com