June 2023 Greensheet Market Analysis: To Infinity & Beyond

If you’ve ever wanted to know what it feels like to ride on a rocket ship headed straight for the moon, you only have to look as far as the current U.S. paper money market! The category has been on fire for the past three years and currently shows no signs of slowing down. Exceedingly popular Large Size type material in Extra Fine and above has been shining so brightly that you may need to acquire a darker shade of sunglasses to handle the glare. One very impressive Small Size category has literally doubled in price over the past 36 months. The seemingly impossible has taken place so quickly that many dealers and the majority of casual collectors are having a hard time wrapping their heads around what has now become the new normal. Series 1934 and 1934A $1,000 Federal Reserve Notes have always been a popular commodity, but their recent price surge is nothing short of incredible. Three very short years ago an Extra Fine to About Uncirculated problem-free certified $1,000 could be purchased without much difficulty for 2.5 to 3.5 times face value. An amazing gift in retrospect when comparing today’s current price levels. The same note in 2023 will cost you $5,000 to $6,000.

To clarify, we are not talking about better districts. Common problem-free type examples in XF40 to CU64 on Chicago are now bringing double what they did during the first quarter of 2020! What was at one time an everyday mundane Very Choice CU64 EPQ that consistently ranged in the mid-to-low $4,000s is quickly approaching ten times face value! These are not rare notes by any means whatsoever. PMG alone has graded over twelve thousand individual $1,000 Small Size Federal Reserve notes with just over five thousand of these examples being series 1934 and 1934A and reaching a grade of XF40 or higher. While other examples grading VF35 and below are still special notes worthy of adding to your collection, the coveted textbook tri-fold XFs, notes that are essentially UNCs that were folded up and put into a wallet, are exceptionally eye appealing! Featured here is a 1934 Boston dark green seal $1,000 FRN graded PMG AU58 that sold via Heritage Auctions in October 2022 for a staggering $7,800. A massive sum for a note with a population of five with twenty-four notes graded higher. Only two years prior, this identical note bearing the same serial number brought $4,080.

With over five million in face value to choose from, what on earth would constitute such a sudden and extreme change in value? Is there something we are all missing? Often the answers are easier to find than you would expect. After setting up at nearly 50 numismatic shows during 2022 alone, there has been a consistent theme within the currency category and specifically the area of high denominations. A brand new generation of collectors are appearing and they are on the hunt for $500s and $1,000s! The majority of these new faces all have one thing in common: they are all younger than I am! At 45 years old, I’ve been told that I am barely out of diapers in this industry. Of course that is a compliment, and I’ll take it! However, the clearer picture is the large number of late 20s to early 40s collectors that are diving in head first into the paper money hobby! Instead of hunting large size type, they have high denomination notes at the top of their list. Several have told me when purchasing a $1,000 bill that this is the very first collectible note they have ever purchased. Many are bullion stackers that have zero plans to build a 12-note district set or expand into other paper money categories, they simply want a “Nice Example” of a $1,000 note. Many already own a $500 note and simply had yet to bite the bullet and acquire the larger denomination to complete their paired set. Supply and demand reigns supreme and when a seemingly common note is suddenly sought after by a new group of consumers, a fixed amount of available material quickly feels the squeeze. As a result, prices have soared and reached levels so high, so quickly, that just a short time ago you would have been laughed out of the room forecasting a seemingly overnight 100% increase in value. An exciting prospect is the potential for the $1,000 Federal Reserve Note market to stabilize at current levels in the short term and have even further room to grow by year end! With so many new eyes seeing these notes for the very first time, the next generation of buyers may not have their fill for some time! Only time will tell.

Special thanks to Robert Calderman, owner of Paper Money Depot for contributing this article. Find his award winning column “Cherry Picker’s Corner” in Paper Money Magazine published by the Society of Paper Money Collectors. www.spmc.org.