The Business of Numismatics: July 2023 Greysheet

COMPARED TO THE WIDER macroeconomic picture lately, the rare coin market is rather healthy. For the 79th time in its history, Congress has “resolved” the debt ceiling problem, a problem of its own making. The market effects were wide-ranging, with United States Treasuries, the U.S. dollar, and the equity indices feeling the pressure. Lending rates, including the benchmark secured overnight financing rate surged, creating some turmoil in the debt markets. Even gold was not immune. Despite backing off its peak highs, the spot price of the yellow metal has outperformed the broader commodities market by 18% year to date.

As I touched on in last month’s column, central banks of the world have been buying significant amount of gold, because these banks are also some of the largest holders of U.S. government debt. The buying has been at the greatest pace since 1971, which is the year the U.S. separated from the gold standard.

While demand for rare coins has softened somewhat this year, the safe haven aspect of bullion has mitigated some of the pain. Although the increased cost of financing may limit large purchases, those who have some excess cash can confidently stock away vintage U.S. coins as downside protection against the dollar. Premiums have weakened in the generic gold market, while the premiums for modern proof Eagle coins have mostly remained firm.

Most anything that is nice and original of the Flowing Hair, Draped/Capped Bust, Seated Liberty types have plenty of willing buyers. Series such and Indian and Lincoln cents, Morgan dollars, and Walking Liberty halves, while still active, may have peaked for the moment.

As I write, the Stack’s Bowers June Showcase auction is a couple weeks away, with nearly 3,000 lots of U.S. coins and related material on offer. Anchored by a few small specialized collections, it will serve to sate any buyer demand until the ANA extravaganza in August.

One event in July that I want to highlight is Witter Coin University, in which young adults who are aspiring professional numismatists enjoy a week-long immersive experience to expand their knowledge on a variety of subjects. Class sessions are presented to the students by leading numismatists on topics such as coin grading, buying and selling, auction lot viewing, and ancient and world coinage. We are honored that Greysheet will be participating in this year’s session. I will be presenting a class on pricing and market dynamics, understanding the concept of value as it applies to rare coins, and how to properly utilize price guides. Having a foundational understanding of how and why prices are established goes beyond what one learns in “Economics 101” because collectibles are traded in a unique way relative to other goods.

The availability of data, something that we have greatly brought forward over the past seven years, makes this even more important. It is easy to get bogged down in a mountain of differing pricing data and I have seen collectors and dealers paralyzed by this. The ability to quickly distill data and make decisions is key in today’s market. Managing, organizing, and presenting this data is a huge job, one that we spend tremendous resources on, and while we are very dedicated to and proud of our printed publications, much of our time is spent on data projects.

Coming back around to the theme of learning and opportunity, we are always open to working with individuals who not only are passionate about numismatics, but also very comfortable with data, numbers, formulas, algorithms, databases, and the like. If this sounds like you, drop us a line at editor@greysheet.com.

Sincerely,
Patrick Ian Perez