The Business of Numismatics: October 2023 Greysheet Editor's Letter

Now that we have a full post-mortem of the major convention of the year, the World’s Fair of Money^®, we can take the real temperature of the rare coin market. After all, numismatic journalists have long stated that the ANA show gives a barometer of the market. While the wholesale trading during the show week itself was reported to be brisk and the auctions held the week following the show did respectable numbers, a broad view of the transaction data shows that the market is cooling considerably. On the auction side, Heritage reported greater than $66 million in total prices realized. Of this total, $20.7 million was contributed by Part IV of the Harry W. Bass Jr. Collection, while the balance was nearly split equally between the U.S. Signature sessions at $25.9 million and the World Platinum and Signature sessions at $19.4 million. In my opinion this is the major takeaway from the Heritage sale; in most prior years the United States coin sessions would outpace the world coins by four or five times to one. With the two categories at near parity, we can see the significant growth in market share of world coinage. Another aspect to consider is that these totals were down with relatively similar volume: the U.S. coins at 1,513 auction lots and the world coins at 1,729 lots. It is easy to focus on the “big coins” that sold in the auction, and with the Bass Collection being a once-in-a-generation offering, there is plenty of coverage elsewhere—including in this month’s feature article. However, one coin worth mentioning is the PCGS/CAC MS65+ 1889-CC Morgan dollar that brought $660,000. PCGS reports one grading event for this key date in MS64+, one in MS65, and one in MS65+. Interestingly, the highest PCGS graded coins seen at public auction have only been MS64, the last of which was in February 2020 with a realized price of just $60,000. NGC certified MS65 1889-CC dollars have sold recently in the range of $180,000 to $229,000. This illustrates that there is still powerful demand for “Plus CAC” graded coins that are finest or near-finest known.

Meanwhile, Stack’s Bowers held a massive post-ANA sale that covered U.S. and world coins along with U.S. and world paper money. While a complete total for the sale has yet to be released as of this writing, we do know that the U.S. coin portion of the sale brought in over $23 million, with the Rarities Night session accounting for more than $11 million of that total. As mentioned earlier, the market is cooling off, and the primary cold spots are in two divergent sectors. First, although most classic United States gold continues to perform admirably, there are cracks. With the ongoing offering of the various Fairmont named collections, semi-key and scarce dates are appearing with more regularity. The markets for these coins are necessarily thin, as Liberty head gold are long, difficult series to complete. Thus, Liberty head eagles and half eagles are trending lower, along with early (pre-1834) eagles. The collectors who pursue these coins generally have significant resources, so they hold out for the best. With the Bass coins that have come to the market, lesser grade examples slip. This is combined with very low wholesale premiums for generic gold coinage and Morgan and Peace dollars. The effect from this is felt in the wider market because cash flow from trading in these high-volume coins is what flows into other sectors. When this flow gets pinched, it is felt. With the Federal Reserve expected to stand pat on interest rates at their September meeting, there may be a reversal of this down the road.

Sincerely,
Patrick Ian Perez