March 2022 Greensheet Market Report: Large-Size Type Notes Lead Stronger Market

There is one thing that is clearly evident in this very robust United States currency market: Large Size Legal Tenders are leading the way. While I am hesitant to call the market for paper money “white hot” there have certainly been some eye-opening sales results over the past four months.

This month’s newsletter has more than 550 pricing changes, and the majority of them are of the green up arrow variety. When analyzing sales records it becomes apparent that there is a pretty clear line of before and after: starting around April of last year prices have taken a leg up and they have sustained to the present. What is not as clear is whether U.S. paper money has been undervalued for many years and are now catching up to their “real value” or if these new higher prices are a signal that the market has expanded and there are that many more buyers. Evaluating population reports and looking at the overall market capitalization of U.S. currency—especially compared to coins—one realizes that there really are not that many pieces to go around. The scarcity of certain catalog numbers is not yet fully appreciated.

As I mentioned above, some of the largest increases in terms of prices paid are found in Large Size Legal Tenders, and most of all in the famous Series 1869 Rainbow notes.

Series 1869 $5 Legal Tender

Looking first at the $1 denomination (Fr.-18), in grade 63 we find that from 2014 to early 2020 all examples offered publicly, both PMG and PCGS Currency certified, sold between $2,400 and $3,000. Then starting in September of 2020 to now, the four notes that have sold brought between $4,000 and $5,760. In Gem 65, of which there is a PMG population of just 22 out of 940 total notes graded, only two examples brought more than $10,000 which was in 2016. The two most recent examples that have come to market both broke through that barrier, selling for $11,700 and $19,800. It is worth pointing out that the $19,800 result is higher than all but one of the sales records for Superb Gem 66 notes! For the $2 denomination (Fr.-42) in grade 64, most recent sales have been in the $7,000 to $9,000 range, while the two most recent examples brought $10,800 and $13,200. PMG has certified only 37 notes across all of the Uncirculated grades for this catalog number. The $5 denomination (Fr.-64)—perhaps the most sought-after note in the entire Rainbow series—in Gem 65 had been trading mostly in the $4,800 to $6,400 range, while the two most recent sales have been at $7,200 and $7,800.

Many similar sales results can be found within the Large Size Legal Tenders, Silver Certificates, and Gold Certificates. For the collectors reading this, I do like to point out the while the Greensheet is intended to be a wholesale price guide, we have CPG^® (Collectors Price Guide) prices for almost all U.S. currency that is available on our website, on our app, and printed in the CPG^® Market Review.

In summary, we are seeing many prices approach levels from the previous all-time U.S. currency market top, which was mid-2008. The key will be if the market can surpass those levels and sustain the demand without getting into bubble territory. It will then be very realistic to say that the U.S. currency market has advanced to a new level. ­­­