May 2022 Greensheet Market Analysis: Large Size Silver Certificates
The monthly currency market commentary for May 2022 by Patrick Ian Perez.
Over the past year and a half, we have written extensively about the strong performance of the United States collectible currency market. We cite auction sales and other data, but sometimes overlook analyzing the performance of a specific series. As a result, I thought I would use this issue as a primer of sorts, in this case reviewing Large Size Silver Certificates.
Series 1886 $1 Silver Certificate
Both within auctions and at coin shows and shops, the most frequently
encountered denominations within this category are $1, $2, and $5. At the
$10 denomination and higher Large Size Silver Certificates begin to get
very scarce and often are acquired by advanced collectors or those building
a comprehensive type set. The first series of $1 notes is the popular
Martha Washington type. This design type commenced with the Series of 1886,
which features seven signature and seal combinations. To date, across all
Friedberg numbers PMG has only graded a total of 1,910 pieces. The key note
from this initial series is Fr.-221 with just 103 total graded and only 16
reported in Uncirculated at PMG. Over the past two years these notes have
shown the best performance in the middle grades of Extra Fine and About
Uncirculated. As an example, the most available note in Series 1886,
Fr.-215 in Extra Fine-40 was trading in the $650–$750 and now are in the
$900 to $1,000 range. There are two notes of the Martha Washington type
issued under the Series of 1891 that feature a modified back design. Of the
two, Fr.-222 is considerably more scarce, with 214 total graded at PMG
versus 1,002 for Fr.-223, a difference of nearly five times. Strangely,
however, the prices realized for the two notes are much closer than one
would expect. The primary differences are in grades CU66 and CU67. It seems
that a very strong case can be made that Fr.-222 is underappreciated in the
market. The next type of $1 Large Size Silver Certificates need no
introduction, as it is the very famous Educational notes. Issued as Series
1896, there are two signature combinations with Fr.-224 being the slightly
more available number. These are blue chip notes with very stable pricing
history. They have steadily advanced in value over the past decade, however
because of the consistent demand and ample supply they will not show
dramatic increases, but it is very unlikely they will decrease in value
over time. The $1 Educational is a classic example of a very reliable
tangible asset. Next up with the $1 is the vast Series of 1899 and the
Black Eagle note. Covering 13 sub types and signature combinations, these
notes have shown very strong price performance recently despite the
quantity available. Fr.-236, the final note issued of the type is the most
common, with PMG certifiying more than 3,700 pieces thus far. It is
important to note that despite the availability of this type, PMG have only
certified 105 examples at the CU67 grade level across the entire type.
Despite this, notes that this level can still be acquired for less than
$2,500 at auction, roughly the same price as a Mint State St.-Gaudens
double eagle coin which is infinitely more common. The increased demand for
this type also indicates a growth in the paper money collector base, as
these are entry-level pieces that newer collectors are eager to buy and
dealers are equally eager to stock. The final $1 Large Size Silver
Certificates are the Series of 1923. Long considered extremely common, the
performance of Uncirculated pieces from this series, of which there are
three signature combinations, has been something to watch. The populations
decrease as the catalog number increases: PMG has seen 6,449 examples of
Fr.-237, 3,392 of Fr.-238, and only 358 of Fr.-239. Looking at Fr.-238 in
Gem CU65 just a few years ago it was a $150 to $185 note, and now trades in
the $275 to $325 range. Just last month, Heritage sold two examples with
the PMG Star designation for $408 and $600! For Fr.-239, 177 of the 358
total notes graded are Uncirculated, but this most likely has more to do
with the fact that dealers and collectors have not bothered to submit
circulated examples for grading. Relative to its scarcity, this note in
Extra Fine and About Uncirculated could be significantly undervalued. Next
month we will take a look at the $2 denomination of Large Size Silver
Certificates.

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Author: Patrick Ian Perez

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