October 2023 Greensheet Market Analysis of the US Paper Money Market

Now that we’ve had a chance to fully absorb and analyze the Stack’s Bowers Showcase sale from August that we touched on in last month’s issue, along with the Heritage Long Beach Signature sale, it is pretty astounding the amount of new price records that were set. In some cases, a new record was set by a huge margin. Let’s start with a Series 1878 $1 Legal Tender (Fr.-69) graded by PMG Superb Gem 67 EPQ. These low population Legal Tender notes of the One, Two, and Five Dollar denominations have been on a tear over the past few years. This note, on a strong $15,000 to $25,000 estimate sold for an eye-opening $40,800. This exact note, while housed in an old PCGS Currency holder, sold in April 2013 for just $5,581.

A year and a half later a different note also in an old PCGS Currency holder sold for $6,462. Now, the combination of a wise crossover into a PMG holder and a very live market yielded a whopping 631% appreciation over a decade, along with a new price record for the catalog number that should stand for quite a while. Outside of Small Size high denomination notes, it is hard to argue that the most white-hot type in all of United States currency are the Series 1901 $10 Legal Tender “Bison” notes. While PMG alone has graded more than 4,000 examples, the current demand seems insatiable. The most populous of the nine different catalog numbers is Fr.-122, and two examples brought “moon money” recently. First, Stack’s Bowers sold a PMG Superb Gem 66 EPQ for a record $30,000. To get anywhere close to that price we have to go back to January 2007 when an example sold for $16,100 and June 2008 when one realized $15,870. This new record nearly doubles those prices.

Next, Heritage sold a PMG Superb Gem 67 EPQ example of Fr.-122 for $66,000. Back in June 2007 Lyn Knight sold a PMG 67 for $27,600 which stood as the previous record. This most recent price exceeds that price by 139%. These results certainly present challenges from a pricing perspective. While the bid price has been raised multiple times, in various grades, over the past year plus, it is impossible to know how much higher these notes can go. Time will tell. Over in Silver Certificates, one standout and record-setter was a Series 1908 $10 (Fr.-302) in a PMG Superb Gem 66 EPQ holder that brought a stunning $78,000 in the Heritage Long Beach sale.

Less than three years ago an identically graded piece brought $31,200. Friedberg-302 is part of the note type nicknamed the “Tombstone” of which there are three total varieties. In August, a Fr.304 in a PCGS Banknote Superb Gem 66 PPQ holder sold for $43,200, which is still 44% less than the one in September. One has to wonder if the same bidders were involved with both lots. Finally, in Treasury Notes, which have had a strong resurgence over the past two years, a Series 1891 $1 (Fr.-351) also certified PMG Superb Gem 67 EPQ blew past its high estimate to sell for a record $11,400. Previous sales of notes in this grade had not even broken the $4,000 mark.

To me, the biggest takeaway from these sales records is proof that United States currency—and world paper money for that matter—are being recognized as legitimate high-value assets, something that is usually reserved for rare coins. Yes, there has been six and sometimes seven-figure banknotes for some time now, but the appreciation we’ve been witnessing lately is different. There seems to be a recognition amongst investors and advanced collectors as to the rarity of collectible currency and it is clear some serious long-term collections are being built.